| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
109 |
0.905 |
$98.46 |
$8.16 |
+9.0% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
120 |
0.395 |
$47.40 |
$-9.00 |
-16.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
100 |
0.305 |
$30.50 |
$0.50 |
+1.7% |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.204 |
$20.44 |
$-4.56 |
-18.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
30 |
0.625 |
$18.75 |
$0.75 |
+4.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
20 |
0.920 |
$18.40 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
120 |
0.140 |
$16.80 |
$-3.60 |
-17.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
20 |
0.835 |
$16.70 |
$6.30 |
+60.6% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
201 |
0.080 |
$16.07 |
$-4.02 |
-20.0% |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.795 |
$15.90 |
$-1.70 |
-9.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
20 |
0.765 |
$15.30 |
$4.50 |
+41.7% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.750 |
$15.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? |
Yes |
100 |
0.145 |
$14.50 |
$4.50 |
+45.0% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.715 |
$14.30 |
$2.50 |
+21.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.710 |
$14.20 |
$0.20 |
+1.4% |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
800 |
0.018 |
$14.00 |
$-10.00 |
-41.7% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
20 |
0.665 |
$13.30 |
$1.30 |
+10.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
80 |
0.165 |
$13.20 |
$-1.30 |
-9.0% |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? |
Yes |
81 |
0.145 |
$11.74 |
$-20.65 |
-63.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.115 |
$11.50 |
$-3.50 |
-23.3% |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.110 |
$11.00 |
$-9.00 |
-45.0% |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.011 |
$10.50 |
$-0.50 |
-4.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.491 |
$9.82 |
$-6.18 |
-38.6% |
| Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
No |
10 |
0.974 |
$9.73 |
$0.94 |
+10.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.902 |
$9.03 |
$1.62 |
+22.0% |