PnL (30d)

−$119

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-24.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

36%

91W / 160L · 49 open

Win Return (30d)

31%

91W / 198L · 11 open

Trades (30d)

300

across 26 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

−$5.16

avg win $13 · loss $13

Profit Factor

0.42

$88 won / $206 lost

Reward / Risk

0.97

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$48

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	41.9% 1,257W/1,745L	192	$119,887
🌤 Weather	65.0% 39W/21L	5	$61
⚽ Sports	—	1	$12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	200	0.270	$54.00	$-10.00	-15.6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 6?	Yes	200	0.015	$3.00	$-1.00	-25.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 6?	Yes	4	0.265	$1.19	$-0.20	-14.5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C or higher on August 5?	Yes	1,647	0.001	$0.82	$-0.82	-50.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on August 5?	Yes	500	0.001	$0.25	$-0.75	-75.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 6?	Yes	16	0.015	$0.23	$-3.37	-93.5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	460	0.001	$0.23	$-5.79	-96.2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5?	Yes	301	0.001	$0.15	$-13.98	-98.9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	20	0.001	$0.01	$-0.07	-87.5%