PnL (30d)

−$88

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$32

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

53%

275W / 242L · 152 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

369W / 300L

Trades (30d)

669

across 148 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$0.77

avg win $6 · loss $13

Profit Factor

0.83

$435 won / $523 lost

Reward / Risk

0.43

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$15

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	53.2% 275W/242L	148	$7,163
🏛 Politics	87.5% 28W/4L	18	$798
🎬 Culture	86.7% 26W/4L	12	$296
₿ Crypto	100.0% 1W/0L	3	$54

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	330	0.746	$246.17	$15.98	+6.9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?	Yes	90	0.875	$78.74	$8.65	+12.3%
Will Solana reach $80 in August?	Yes	163	0.470	$76.61	$-4.35	-5.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?	Yes	110	0.535	$58.85	$6.35	+12.1%
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	180	0.315	$56.62	$-47.83	-45.8%
Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" in August?	Yes	50	0.966	$48.27	$1.27	+2.7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in August?	Yes	40	0.905	$36.22	$0.16	+0.4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	52	0.675	$35.13	$5.51	+18.6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?	Yes	55	0.575	$31.62	$-1.38	-4.2%
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?	Yes	70	0.450	$31.49	$-2.12	-6.3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	100	0.270	$27.00	$3.00	+12.5%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	202	0.125	$25.30	$-5.88	-18.9%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	30	0.815	$24.44	$-0.25	-1.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?	Yes	200	0.115	$23.00	$-2.00	-8.0%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	50	0.455	$22.75	$-3.75	-14.2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 5, 2026?	Yes	20	0.900	$17.99	$-0.40	-2.2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?	Yes	300	0.057	$16.95	$-0.75	-4.2%
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.810	$16.20	$2.05	+14.5%
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.735	$14.70	$-0.10	-0.7%
Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?	Yes	20	0.595	$11.89	$-0.30	-2.5%
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?	Yes	140	0.060	$8.40	$-15.20	-64.4%
Will Solana reach $90 in August?	Yes	21	0.115	$2.39	$0.52	+27.8%
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	25	0.086	$2.14	$0.05	+2.3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	3	0.195	$0.65	$-0.15	-18.7%