| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
50,622 |
0.835 |
$42,269.71 |
$4,442.37 |
+11.7% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
48,201 |
0.515 |
$24,823.57 |
$5,061.12 |
+25.6% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
23,858 |
0.705 |
$16,819.94 |
$3,236.56 |
+23.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
15,805 |
1.000 |
$15,797.09 |
$3,497.88 |
+28.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
14,213 |
0.675 |
$9,594.00 |
$1,289.31 |
+15.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
11,790 |
0.805 |
$9,490.94 |
$5,469.91 |
+136.0% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
7,049 |
0.895 |
$6,308.83 |
$1,102.60 |
+21.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,686 |
0.795 |
$3,725.75 |
$941.40 |
+33.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
7,692 |
0.443 |
$3,407.35 |
$412.54 |
+13.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
8,677 |
0.345 |
$2,992.80 |
$476.38 |
+18.9% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
11,307 |
0.255 |
$2,883.31 |
$-2,818.09 |
-49.4% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
5,555 |
0.455 |
$2,527.53 |
$83.33 |
+3.4% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? |
Yes |
6,768 |
0.235 |
$1,590.58 |
$109.31 |
+7.4% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
1,686 |
0.940 |
$1,584.89 |
$50.58 |
+3.3% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? |
Yes |
4,100 |
0.370 |
$1,516.91 |
$214.13 |
+16.4% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
1,665 |
0.835 |
$1,390.27 |
$439.01 |
+46.1% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
3,119 |
0.265 |
$826.60 |
$-230.51 |
-21.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
Yes |
6,007 |
0.125 |
$750.85 |
$-1,351.27 |
-64.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
922 |
0.715 |
$658.91 |
$96.76 |
+17.2% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,286 |
0.460 |
$590.79 |
$88.07 |
+17.5% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
1,575 |
0.356 |
$561.53 |
$361.66 |
+180.9% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
741 |
0.375 |
$277.98 |
$-137.14 |
-33.0% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
No |
7,127 |
0.034 |
$242.33 |
$-1,364.55 |
-84.9% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? |
Yes |
4,070 |
0.029 |
$120.05 |
$-13.19 |
-9.9% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,896 |
0.006 |
$23.38 |
$-350.55 |
-93.7% |