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Trader leaderboard/grouched

grouched

0x3c443fc04076f90229795c96d4c58ca016d3f66f
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$48
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$8
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-18.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
40%
6W / 9L · 7 open
Win Return (30d)
55%
12W / 10L
Trades (30d)
22
across 5 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$23.86
avg win $28 · loss $76
Profit Factor
0.37
$28 won / $76 lost
Reward / Risk
0.37
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$26
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $302 · all-time $45,846

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 33.3% 7W/14L 17 $733
🏛 Politics 100.0% 6W/0L 8 $340
💵 Economy 66.7% 6W/3L 5 $313
⚽ Sports 2 $28
₿ Crypto 1 $9

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 376 0.790 $296.82 $147.03 +98.2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 2,000 0.125 $250.04 $-50.00 -16.7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 826 0.278 $229.34 $35.29 +18.2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 235 0.830 $194.64 $49.14 +33.8%
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? Yes 274 0.495 $135.70 $32.36 +31.3%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? Yes 396 0.335 $132.81 $50.59 +61.5%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 137 0.695 $95.18 $17.27 +22.2%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 70 0.685 $47.95 $0.25 +0.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 70 0.535 $37.45 $5.25 +16.3%
Will the Orlando Magic be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? Yes 1,023 0.034 $34.78 $7.16 +25.9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 50 0.515 $25.75 $5.05 +24.4%
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes 162 0.140 $22.66 $-40.60 -64.2%
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2,000 0.009 $17.00 $-3.40 -16.7%
Will DeMar DeRozan play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? Yes 16 0.150 $2.33 $-1.71 -42.3%