| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
45 |
0.850 |
$38.25 |
$7.00 |
+22.4% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
45 |
0.695 |
$31.27 |
$14.12 |
+82.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
43 |
0.715 |
$30.67 |
$5.36 |
+21.2% |
| Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General? |
No |
32 |
0.959 |
$30.37 |
$5.92 |
+24.2% |
| Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027? |
No |
34 |
0.835 |
$28.61 |
$3.25 |
+12.8% |
| Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by October 31? |
Yes |
31 |
0.930 |
$28.53 |
$7.62 |
+36.4% |
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? |
No |
30 |
0.927 |
$27.82 |
$-0.42 |
-1.5% |
| Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
45 |
0.570 |
$25.65 |
$5.78 |
+29.1% |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? |
No |
26 |
0.971 |
$25.51 |
$0.07 |
+0.3% |
| Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? |
Yes |
33 |
0.720 |
$23.44 |
$3.25 |
+16.1% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
35 |
0.625 |
$21.94 |
$2.26 |
+11.5% |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? |
No |
25 |
0.855 |
$21.38 |
$0.07 |
+0.4% |
| Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? |
No |
24 |
0.820 |
$20.04 |
$4.44 |
+28.5% |
| Israel election: will Likud lose seats? |
Yes |
21 |
0.895 |
$18.72 |
$1.92 |
+11.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
45 |
0.390 |
$17.55 |
$-13.05 |
-42.6% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? |
No |
20 |
0.865 |
$17.30 |
$0.30 |
+1.8% |
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.845 |
$16.90 |
$1.90 |
+12.7% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
45 |
0.375 |
$16.88 |
$2.02 |
+13.6% |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? |
Yes |
41 |
0.380 |
$15.47 |
$-1.37 |
-8.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.365 |
$15.40 |
$1.90 |
+14.1% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
Yes |
35 |
0.435 |
$15.22 |
$9.07 |
+147.6% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
24 |
0.630 |
$14.87 |
$3.12 |
+26.5% |
| Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027? |
No |
15 |
0.990 |
$14.84 |
$2.75 |
+22.8% |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.715 |
$14.30 |
$-0.55 |
-3.7% |
| Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? |
No |
25 |
0.540 |
$13.50 |
$-6.90 |
-33.8% |