PnL (30d)

−$2,784

Sports · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$22

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-2.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

51%

1,279W / 1,206L · 31 open

Win Return (30d)

52%

1,293W / 1,217L · 6 open

Trades (30d)

2,516

across 149 markets · ~17 per market

EV / position

−$19.60

avg win $109 · loss $134

Profit Factor

0.72

$7,300 won / $10,084 lost

Reward / Risk

0.81

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$884

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	59.7% 2,358W/1,589L	348	$179,291
💵 Economy	73.0% 84W/31L	16	$5,183
⚽ Sports	49.6% 138W/140L	15	$4,424
🏛 Politics	16.2% 6W/31L	9	$1,882

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

98 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	884	0.485	$428.98	$-57.39	-11.8%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	789	0.530	$418.12	$67.99	+19.4%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	551	0.455	$250.68	$31.88	+14.6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	862	0.277	$238.73	$172.57	+260.9%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	285	0.835	$237.97	$58.45	+32.6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	235	0.985	$231.36	$2.00	+0.9%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	551	0.405	$223.13	$4.34	+2.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	Yes	862	0.225	$193.92	$-18.52	-8.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	862	0.222	$190.90	$145.01	+316.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	874	0.125	$109.27	$-282.08	-72.1%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	100	0.895	$89.50	$-3.05	-3.3%
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	No	332	0.180	$59.68	$-19.29	-24.4%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	58	0.885	$51.45	$8.28	+19.2%
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?	Yes	50	0.985	$49.23	$34.38	+231.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?	Yes	862	0.054	$46.54	$34.55	+288.3%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?	Yes	69	0.509	$35.15	$2.46	+7.5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	35	0.991	$34.67	$0.02	+0.1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $447,000 and $454,000 on September 30?	No	33	0.995	$33.12	$0.68	+2.1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $440,000 and $447,000 on September 30?	No	33	0.983	$32.73	$1.76	+5.7%
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	No	237	0.138	$32.62	$-25.70	-44.1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $440,000 on September 30?	No	33	0.925	$30.80	$1.17	+3.9%
Will Yakult Brothers win the 2026 Games of the Future tournament	No	40	0.680	$27.20	$-2.41	-8.1%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	Yes	103	0.255	$26.21	$-7.08	-21.3%
Will JL Find a Team Before September?	No	74	0.340	$25.05	$23.58	+1600.0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	103	0.199	$20.50	$8.30	+68.1%