PnL (30d)

−$27

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$3

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-26.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

7%

3W / 40L · 157 open

Win Return (30d)

72%

144W / 56L

Trades (30d)

200

across 23 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

−$3.00

avg win $3 · loss $5

Profit Factor

0.17

$5 won / $32 lost

Reward / Risk

0.59

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	10.8% 45W/371L	92	$617
🌤 Weather	—	3	$19
🔬 Science	—	3	$19
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/4L	2	$11
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/4L	2	$11
🏛 Politics	—	1	$0

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

30 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	2,451	0.083	$202.22	$136.82	+209.2%
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	100	0.582	$58.14	$16.72	+40.4%
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	3,945	0.012	$47.34	$14.63	+44.7%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	4,950	0.009	$44.55	$-5.84	-11.6%
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?	Yes	3,624	0.011	$41.68	$26.98	+183.5%
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	3,784	0.009	$35.95	$-2.40	-6.3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	Yes	600	0.055	$33.00	$-2.75	-7.7%
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?	Yes	1,950	0.017	$32.17	$1.26	+4.1%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	487	0.065	$31.69	$-12.02	-27.5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?	Yes	850	0.036	$31.02	$-10.97	-26.1%
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	450	0.066	$29.70	$16.83	+130.7%
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Yes	425	0.065	$27.62	$2.57	+10.2%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Yes	325	0.065	$21.12	$-9.33	-30.6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	200	0.085	$17.00	$2.25	+15.3%
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	4,104	0.004	$16.42	$11.61	+241.9%
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?	Yes	3,000	0.004	$12.00	$4.28	+55.4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	350	0.033	$11.37	$-5.30	-31.8%
Natural Disaster in 2026?	Yes	50	0.225	$11.25	$9.12	+429.4%
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Yes	150	0.055	$8.25	$1.25	+17.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	237	0.034	$8.07	$-22.49	-73.6%
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?	Yes	1,391	0.005	$7.65	$2.53	+49.4%
Will 190 to 219 tornadoes occur in the United States in July 2026?	Yes	12	0.289	$3.61	$2.99	+478.0%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Yes	28	0.115	$3.16	$-0.49	-13.4%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by August 31?	Yes	100	0.021	$2.14	$-8.61	-80.1%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 225M by August 31?	Yes	125	0.012	$1.50	$0.50	+50.0%