PnL (30d)

−$130

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$22

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

49%

3,719W / 3,862L · 134 open

Win Return (30d)

49%

3,764W / 3,881L · 70 open

Trades (30d)

7,715

across 911 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

−$0.16

avg win $4 · loss $7

Profit Factor

0.94

$2,053 won / $2,182 lost

Reward / Risk

0.54

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$573

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.1% 3,719W/3,862L	911	$31,447
🌤 Weather	74.2% 121W/42L	48	$1,964

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5?	No	239	1.000	$238.70	$12.09	+5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	228	1.000	$227.67	$11.07	+5.1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 5?	No	10	1.000	$10.24	$0.20	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5?	No	10	1.000	$10.24	$0.20	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.15	$0.15	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.15	$0.15	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.15	$0.15	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.15	$0.15	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.15	$0.15	+3.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.998	$5.14	$0.14	+2.9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.14	$0.10	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.10	$0.10	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.10	$0.10	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	5	1.000	$5.10	$0.10	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C or below on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.10	$0.07	+1.4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 6?	No	5	0.998	$5.09	$0.04	+0.8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.04	$0.04	+0.9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on August 5?	No	5	1.000	$5.03	$0.03	+0.6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 6?	No	5	0.975	$5.01	$-0.03	-0.5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 6?	No	5	0.957	$4.88	$-0.14	-2.8%