meteophilia
0x358bf4c992767dc606a1d7dff6a3d95dd5a43722
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$234
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-48.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
16%
51W / 266L
Win Return (30d)
16%
51W / 266L
Trades (30d)
317
across 118 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$1.99
avg win $10 · loss $4
Profit Factor
0.40
$156 won / $390 lost
Reward / Risk
2.55
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$66
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $4,886 · all-time $380,913
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
| Category |
Win Resolved (per trade) |
Markets |
Volume |
|
🌐 All markets
|
19.2%
236W/996L
|
427 |
$3,518 |
|
🌤 Weather
|
17.5%
14W/66L
|
40 |
$207 |
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
5 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 6? |
Yes |
35 |
0.140 |
$4.85 |
$0.35 |
+7.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 6? |
Yes |
183 |
0.018 |
$3.20 |
$-0.30 |
-8.5% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 5? |
Yes |
284 |
0.008 |
$2.27 |
$0.77 |
+51.5% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 5? |
Yes |
37 |
0.060 |
$2.22 |
$-1.48 |
-40.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? |
Yes |
55 |
0.001 |
$0.03 |
$-3.97 |
-99.3% |