| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
3,719 |
0.830 |
$3,086.58 |
$595.80 |
+23.9% |
| Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? |
No |
1,751 |
0.915 |
$1,601.91 |
$94.38 |
+6.3% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
1,808 |
0.830 |
$1,500.65 |
$54.92 |
+3.8% |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? |
No |
1,470 |
0.968 |
$1,422.44 |
$56.40 |
+4.1% |
| Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? |
No |
1,384 |
0.942 |
$1,303.82 |
$52.55 |
+4.2% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,762 |
0.705 |
$1,242.13 |
$385.55 |
+45.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
1,537 |
0.740 |
$1,137.69 |
$55.93 |
+5.2% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,368 |
0.806 |
$1,102.54 |
$475.07 |
+75.7% |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15? |
No |
1,665 |
0.550 |
$915.77 |
$258.52 |
+39.3% |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? |
No |
910 |
0.930 |
$846.31 |
$16.42 |
+2.0% |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026? |
No |
772 |
0.900 |
$694.69 |
$39.11 |
+6.0% |
| Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? |
No |
727 |
0.900 |
$653.99 |
$101.11 |
+18.3% |
| Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? |
No |
759 |
0.855 |
$649.13 |
$62.49 |
+10.7% |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
714 |
0.795 |
$567.68 |
$74.12 |
+15.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
739 |
0.685 |
$506.17 |
$21.27 |
+4.4% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
519 |
0.935 |
$485.22 |
$23.00 |
+5.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? |
No |
919 |
0.495 |
$454.83 |
$19.05 |
+4.4% |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? |
No |
506 |
0.896 |
$453.23 |
$49.20 |
+12.2% |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? |
No |
464 |
0.918 |
$426.37 |
$17.28 |
+4.2% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
554 |
0.765 |
$423.66 |
$0.07 |
+0.0% |
| Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,108 |
0.355 |
$393.48 |
$1.07 |
+0.3% |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? |
No |
469 |
0.835 |
$391.89 |
$29.34 |
+8.1% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
440 |
0.890 |
$391.21 |
$19.46 |
+5.2% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
400 |
0.945 |
$378.00 |
$54.94 |
+17.0% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
2,123 |
0.177 |
$376.81 |
$-796.75 |
-67.9% |