| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
No |
2,794 |
0.643 |
$1,797.99 |
$-702.01 |
-28.1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
1,234 |
0.790 |
$975.77 |
$-24.23 |
-2.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
3,535 |
0.225 |
$795.32 |
$-2,404.68 |
-75.1% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
916 |
0.835 |
$764.55 |
$-35.45 |
-4.4% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
536 |
0.966 |
$517.21 |
$17.21 |
+3.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
1,160 |
0.385 |
$446.74 |
$146.74 |
+48.9% |
| Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
367 |
0.905 |
$332.17 |
$32.17 |
+10.7% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
441 |
0.635 |
$280.15 |
$-19.85 |
-6.6% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
250 |
0.940 |
$235.07 |
$35.07 |
+17.5% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
257 |
0.905 |
$233.01 |
$33.01 |
+16.5% |
| Will BP be acquired before 2027? |
No |
239 |
0.970 |
$231.70 |
$31.70 |
+15.8% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
221 |
0.927 |
$204.97 |
$4.97 |
+2.5% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
312 |
0.625 |
$195.31 |
$95.31 |
+95.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
297 |
0.635 |
$188.41 |
$-11.59 |
-5.8% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
673 |
0.255 |
$171.58 |
$-128.42 |
-42.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
896 |
0.165 |
$147.84 |
$-262.16 |
-63.9% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
169 |
0.865 |
$146.55 |
$26.55 |
+22.1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
159 |
0.905 |
$143.65 |
$43.65 |
+43.7% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
No |
146 |
0.945 |
$138.01 |
$18.02 |
+15.0% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? |
No |
166 |
0.805 |
$133.71 |
$33.71 |
+33.7% |
| Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? |
No |
147 |
0.875 |
$128.68 |
$28.68 |
+28.7% |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? |
No |
153 |
0.838 |
$127.93 |
$27.93 |
+27.9% |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? |
Yes |
123 |
0.947 |
$116.48 |
$16.48 |
+16.5% |
| Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? |
No |
125 |
0.925 |
$115.62 |
$15.62 |
+15.6% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
189 |
0.605 |
$114.15 |
$14.15 |
+14.2% |