| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
141 |
0.835 |
$117.73 |
$9.66 |
+8.9% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
83 |
0.825 |
$68.47 |
$37.76 |
+123.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
67 |
0.845 |
$56.62 |
$3.21 |
+6.0% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Yes |
79 |
0.705 |
$55.70 |
$20.21 |
+56.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
80 |
0.635 |
$50.80 |
$5.27 |
+11.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
49 |
0.865 |
$42.38 |
$7.59 |
+21.8% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? |
No |
41 |
0.895 |
$36.70 |
$3.89 |
+11.9% |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
Yes |
121 |
0.275 |
$33.41 |
$14.67 |
+78.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
64 |
0.515 |
$32.96 |
$2.24 |
+7.3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
43 |
0.745 |
$32.03 |
$0.21 |
+0.7% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
194 |
0.165 |
$32.01 |
$-11.63 |
-26.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
118 |
0.259 |
$30.50 |
$1.22 |
+4.2% |
| Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? |
No |
37 |
0.705 |
$26.08 |
$-0.18 |
-0.7% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
88 |
0.265 |
$23.32 |
$4.84 |
+26.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
93 |
0.225 |
$20.93 |
$-0.46 |
-2.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
33 |
0.625 |
$20.62 |
$3.48 |
+20.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
22 |
0.900 |
$19.80 |
$7.92 |
+66.7% |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? |
No |
24 |
0.820 |
$19.68 |
$1.92 |
+10.8% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
25 |
0.645 |
$16.12 |
$0.67 |
+4.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.365 |
$14.60 |
$2.74 |
+23.1% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
31 |
0.450 |
$13.95 |
$-1.32 |
-8.6% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 |
No |
16 |
0.835 |
$13.36 |
$3.92 |
+41.5% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30? |
Yes |
52 |
0.240 |
$12.48 |
$-5.72 |
-31.4% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
17 |
0.630 |
$10.71 |
$5.78 |
+117.2% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
20 |
0.535 |
$10.70 |
$-0.29 |
-2.7% |