| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
1,160 |
0.155 |
$179.80 |
$6.20 |
+3.6% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.905 |
$90.50 |
$36.50 |
+67.6% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
No |
100 |
0.775 |
$77.50 |
$17.50 |
+29.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
150 |
0.385 |
$57.75 |
$14.75 |
+34.3% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
100 |
0.541 |
$54.10 |
$-12.31 |
-18.5% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.905 |
$45.25 |
$5.25 |
+13.1% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
60 |
0.723 |
$43.35 |
$-2.82 |
-6.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.105 |
$42.00 |
$-115.00 |
-73.2% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
50 |
0.740 |
$37.00 |
$14.50 |
+64.4% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.969 |
$29.05 |
$1.66 |
+6.1% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.944 |
$28.30 |
$0.52 |
+1.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
30 |
0.935 |
$28.05 |
$2.05 |
+7.9% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.525 |
$21.00 |
$-3.40 |
-13.9% |
| Will Alberta join the US? |
No |
20 |
0.980 |
$19.58 |
$0.45 |
+2.4% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
20 |
0.979 |
$19.57 |
$1.00 |
+5.4% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.974 |
$19.47 |
$5.27 |
+37.1% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
20 |
0.920 |
$18.40 |
$3.20 |
+21.1% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.915 |
$18.30 |
$9.20 |
+101.1% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.825 |
$16.50 |
$3.10 |
+23.1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
20 |
0.745 |
$14.90 |
$4.10 |
+38.0% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
20 |
0.635 |
$12.70 |
$1.60 |
+14.4% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.610 |
$12.20 |
$4.00 |
+48.8% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
10 |
0.970 |
$9.70 |
$0.14 |
+1.5% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
10 |
0.956 |
$9.55 |
$0.10 |
+1.1% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
10 |
0.945 |
$9.45 |
$0.45 |
+5.0% |