| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
1,963 |
0.065 |
$127.61 |
$-724.52 |
-85.0% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
214 |
0.460 |
$98.20 |
$-16.80 |
-14.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
284 |
0.259 |
$73.37 |
$5.45 |
+8.0% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
No |
100 |
0.545 |
$54.50 |
$-3.50 |
-6.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
346 |
0.145 |
$50.14 |
$-118.66 |
-70.3% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
55 |
0.755 |
$41.52 |
$0.82 |
+2.0% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
Yes |
55 |
0.690 |
$37.94 |
$7.69 |
+25.4% |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
No |
55 |
0.645 |
$35.48 |
$-4.12 |
-10.4% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
174 |
0.177 |
$30.88 |
$-0.14 |
-0.4% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
202 |
0.147 |
$29.73 |
$-52.27 |
-63.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
165 |
0.175 |
$28.87 |
$-72.00 |
-71.4% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
135 |
0.180 |
$24.33 |
$2.84 |
+13.2% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
103 |
0.235 |
$24.23 |
$2.52 |
+11.6% |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? |
No |
33 |
0.680 |
$22.44 |
$-1.98 |
-8.1% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
55 |
0.355 |
$19.53 |
$0.82 |
+4.4% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
116 |
0.165 |
$19.16 |
$-5.04 |
-20.8% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
106 |
0.165 |
$17.54 |
$-21.51 |
-55.1% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
Yes |
49 |
0.325 |
$15.93 |
$-2.69 |
-14.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? |
No |
55 |
0.271 |
$14.88 |
$5.47 |
+58.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
Yes |
99 |
0.150 |
$14.85 |
$-14.52 |
-49.4% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
Yes |
33 |
0.435 |
$14.36 |
$8.41 |
+141.7% |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
Yes |
33 |
0.405 |
$13.37 |
$-3.46 |
-20.6% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
33 |
0.385 |
$12.71 |
$0.82 |
+6.9% |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
33 |
0.385 |
$12.71 |
$-1.15 |
-8.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
55 |
0.215 |
$11.82 |
$-15.12 |
-56.1% |