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Trader leaderboard/TheNoobBeaver

TheNoobBeaver

0x2bcd792138a4e184f791b05d9c5c70e3c8f7cbfb
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$82
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$24
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-7.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
56%
22W / 17L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
56%
24W / 19L
Trades (30d)
43
across 15 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$6.79
avg win $50 · loss $86
Profit Factor
0.81
$349 won / $431 lost
Reward / Risk
0.58
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$51
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $2,319 · all-time $772,958

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 72.2% 151W/58L 117 $16,871
🏛 Politics 50.0% 8W/8L 10 $890
🎬 Culture 71.4% 15W/6L 8 $697
⚽ Sports 83.3% 5W/1L 5 $160
🌤 Weather 100.0% 3W/0L 4 $157
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/2L 1 $37
₿ Crypto 1 $46
🤖 Tech 1 $35
🔬 Science 1 $35

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

67 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 556 0.980 $544.52 $40.83 +8.1%
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee? Yes 695 0.565 $392.87 $12.20 +3.2%
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 396 0.930 $368.28 $13.28 +3.7%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 345 0.987 $340.24 $15.24 +4.7%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 327 0.957 $312.73 $7.73 +2.5%
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300? No 320 0.897 $286.78 $33.23 +13.1%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 302 0.895 $270.40 $9.27 +3.6%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 277 0.969 $268.53 $8.54 +3.3%
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 209 0.962 $201.42 $0.42 +0.2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 149 0.961 $143.36 $3.36 +2.4%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? No 147 0.875 $128.24 $38.54 +43.0%
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? Yes 133 0.935 $124.02 $-0.98 -0.8%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 119 0.974 $115.65 $0.65 +0.6%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 170 0.635 $107.74 $7.74 +7.7%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 104 0.998 $104.11 $4.11 +4.1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 96 0.989 $95.08 $0.08 +0.1%
Will Eva Bender win the next Hannover Region presidential election? Yes 147 0.560 $82.07 $-2.93 -3.4%
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 75 0.985 $73.38 $16.18 +28.3%
Will Faker become president of South Korea by the end of the year? No 51 0.995 $50.72 $0.23 +0.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? No 57 0.885 $50.56 $4.56 +9.9%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 51 0.988 $50.54 $0.54 +1.1%
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? No 59 0.845 $49.71 $-0.29 -0.6%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 77 0.645 $49.62 $9.62 +24.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 47 0.978 $45.82 $3.56 +8.4%
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 42 0.961 $40.72 $0.72 +1.8%