| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? |
Yes |
9,809 |
0.895 |
$8,778.92 |
$4,079.97 |
+86.8% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? |
No |
13,854 |
0.395 |
$5,465.21 |
$2,111.38 |
+63.0% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
6,098 |
0.680 |
$4,146.54 |
$641.70 |
+18.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7,000 |
0.365 |
$2,554.99 |
$5.05 |
+0.2% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
3,607 |
0.375 |
$1,352.62 |
$9.18 |
+0.7% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.117 |
$1,165.00 |
$-55.00 |
-4.5% |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? |
Yes |
6,282 |
0.165 |
$1,033.40 |
$-272.85 |
-20.9% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
10,000 |
0.088 |
$885.00 |
$365.00 |
+70.2% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,240 |
0.240 |
$777.55 |
$-120.49 |
-13.4% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
971 |
0.735 |
$713.80 |
$33.99 |
+5.0% |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? |
No |
804 |
0.670 |
$539.00 |
$354.07 |
+191.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.135 |
$405.06 |
$-206.52 |
-33.8% |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
534 |
0.750 |
$400.76 |
$107.58 |
+36.7% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.095 |
$380.00 |
$-159.99 |
-29.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.184 |
$369.00 |
$-41.00 |
-10.0% |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.705 |
$352.50 |
$-22.50 |
-6.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
500 |
0.625 |
$312.49 |
$32.50 |
+11.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.305 |
$305.00 |
$5.00 |
+1.7% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.143 |
$287.00 |
$65.00 |
+29.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.560 |
$280.00 |
$55.00 |
+24.4% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
500 |
0.495 |
$247.50 |
$42.50 |
+20.7% |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.033 |
$162.50 |
$38.71 |
+31.3% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.130 |
$130.00 |
$40.00 |
+44.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.035 |
$35.40 |
$5.40 |
+18.0% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? |
Yes |
82 |
0.175 |
$14.35 |
$-6.97 |
-32.7% |