| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
14 |
0.830 |
$11.23 |
$-0.41 |
-3.5% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.962 |
$6.22 |
$0.01 |
+0.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
8 |
0.675 |
$5.66 |
$0.94 |
+19.8% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? |
No |
6 |
0.875 |
$5.55 |
$0.22 |
+4.2% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
8 |
0.645 |
$5.39 |
$0.92 |
+20.7% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.963 |
$4.39 |
$0.08 |
+1.9% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.745 |
$4.31 |
$0.90 |
+26.3% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.925 |
$3.73 |
$0.20 |
+5.5% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? |
No |
3 |
0.955 |
$3.27 |
$0.02 |
+0.7% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
3 |
0.966 |
$2.90 |
$0.65 |
+29.1% |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? |
No |
3 |
0.962 |
$2.74 |
$0.04 |
+1.4% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
3 |
0.935 |
$2.57 |
$0.08 |
+3.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
3 |
0.485 |
$1.35 |
$0.13 |
+10.2% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? |
No |
3 |
0.485 |
$1.35 |
$0.13 |
+10.4% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2 |
0.755 |
$1.34 |
$-0.09 |
-6.2% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? |
No |
2 |
0.715 |
$1.32 |
$0.24 |
+21.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
Yes |
3 |
0.455 |
$1.26 |
$0.04 |
+3.4% |
| Blue wave in 2026? |
Yes |
2 |
0.745 |
$1.23 |
$0.01 |
+0.6% |
| Blue tsunami in 2026? |
Yes |
3 |
0.405 |
$1.22 |
$-0.05 |
-4.2% |
| Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%? |
Yes |
17 |
0.073 |
$1.22 |
$-0.05 |
-3.7% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
1 |
0.982 |
$1.20 |
$0.03 |
+2.6% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
1 |
0.845 |
$1.20 |
$-0.08 |
-6.0% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
1 |
0.945 |
$1.15 |
$0.06 |
+5.2% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
3 |
0.356 |
$1.11 |
$-0.11 |
-8.7% |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? |
No |
1 |
0.930 |
$1.08 |
$0.00 |
+0.1% |