PnL (30d)

−$39

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

70%

16W / 7L · 7 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

17W / 13L

Trades (30d)

30

across 12 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$4.91

avg win $4 · loss $19

Profit Factor

0.32

$18 won / $58 lost

Reward / Risk

0.19

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.2% 23W/29L	44	$6,614
🏛 Politics	—	2	$210

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

32 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	936	0.925	$865.75	$246.35	+39.8%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?	No	764	0.805	$614.82	$202.36	+49.1%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?	No	758	0.805	$610.09	$55.26	+10.0%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?	No	1,538	0.369	$568.42	$-8.79	-1.5%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	508	0.991	$502.99	$286.50	+132.3%
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	495	0.895	$443.21	$2.48	+0.6%
Will there be at least 10,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	Yes	300	0.998	$299.50	$-0.24	-0.1%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	212	0.997	$211.38	$2.44	+1.2%
Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	Yes	173	0.995	$172.48	$6.36	+3.8%
Will Mandela Barnes win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary?	No	148	0.997	$147.00	$-0.12	-0.1%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	1,301	0.105	$136.65	$-307.93	-69.3%
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	1,401	0.034	$47.62	$-85.12	-64.1%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	287	0.140	$40.18	$2.94	+7.9%
Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	520	0.059	$30.94	$-11.09	-26.4%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?	Yes	813	0.034	$27.22	$2.58	+10.5%
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?	Yes	181	0.095	$17.16	$-9.59	-35.9%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?	Yes	210	0.082	$17.11	$-63.48	-78.8%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	92	0.180	$16.61	$-8.31	-33.3%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 5–10%?	Yes	536	0.029	$15.82	$6.70	+73.5%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 10–15%?	Yes	119	0.126	$14.98	$6.65	+79.7%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	232	0.059	$13.68	$-5.05	-27.0%
Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	520	0.026	$13.52	$-17.38	-56.2%
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	No	19	0.680	$12.92	$3.68	+39.8%
Will there be at least 2450 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?	Yes	13	0.949	$12.12	$-0.15	-1.2%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	437	0.013	$5.90	$-11.68	-66.5%