| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
No |
560,000 |
0.540 |
$302,680.00 |
$22,680.00 |
+8.1% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
560,000 |
0.460 |
$257,320.00 |
$-22,680.00 |
-8.1% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
24,555 |
0.845 |
$20,748.93 |
$775.96 |
+3.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
13,640 |
0.835 |
$11,389.01 |
$929.15 |
+8.9% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
11,111 |
0.991 |
$11,005.45 |
$5.56 |
+0.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
10,777 |
0.935 |
$10,076.24 |
$269.42 |
+2.7% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
7,777 |
0.935 |
$7,271.48 |
$461.08 |
+6.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
12,743 |
0.515 |
$6,562.43 |
$687.11 |
+11.7% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
4,120 |
0.961 |
$3,957.57 |
$116.90 |
+3.0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
6,069 |
0.645 |
$3,914.42 |
$1,217.24 |
+45.1% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
3,222 |
0.970 |
$3,123.73 |
$191.38 |
+6.5% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
22,345 |
0.135 |
$3,016.54 |
$-491.92 |
-14.0% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
3,333 |
0.786 |
$2,621.39 |
$479.39 |
+22.4% |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
432,227 |
0.006 |
$2,593.36 |
$-602.52 |
-18.9% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
6,814 |
0.375 |
$2,555.21 |
$99.77 |
+4.1% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
4,012 |
0.635 |
$2,547.71 |
$1,491.10 |
+141.1% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
2,222 |
0.962 |
$2,137.57 |
$-4.44 |
-0.2% |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,670 |
0.945 |
$1,578.03 |
$41.75 |
+2.7% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
Yes |
26,345 |
0.055 |
$1,448.95 |
$-261.29 |
-15.3% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,406 |
0.993 |
$1,395.42 |
$105.76 |
+8.2% |
| Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
1,424 |
0.948 |
$1,349.24 |
$74.55 |
+5.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House |
Yes |
3,087 |
0.395 |
$1,219.37 |
$479.86 |
+64.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House |
No |
2,237 |
0.545 |
$1,219.29 |
$-11.19 |
-0.9% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
No |
1,126 |
0.989 |
$1,113.36 |
$9.57 |
+0.9% |
| Weed rescheduled by December 31? |
Yes |
5,207 |
0.204 |
$1,064.25 |
$-1,043.71 |
-49.5% |