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Trader leaderboard/flawfence

flawfence

0x23d81ba9371e576015c1e562db09c689f56b0288
PnL (30d)
−$102,284
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$46,333
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-8.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
756W / 747L · 1,191 open
Win Return (30d)
61%
1,632W / 1,062L
Trades (30d)
2,694
across 110 markets · ~24 per market
EV / position
−$3,299.50
avg win $14,035 · loss $12,834
Profit Factor
0.60
$154,386 won / $256,671 lost
Reward / Risk
1.09
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$18,500
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $372,385 · all-time $17,598,186

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 50.3% 756W/747L 110 $1,322,510
🏛 Politics 100.0% 38W/0L 26 $199,145
🌤 Weather 3 $1,027
🔬 Science 3 $1,027
🎬 Culture 2 $973
💵 Economy 100.0% 4W/0L 1 $619
₿ Crypto 1 $23,195
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/12L 1 $18,500

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

96 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 100,000 0.445 $44,500.00 $500.00 +1.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August? No 30,825 0.925 $28,513.32 $1,150.71 +4.2%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 61,055 0.455 $27,780.06 $915.83 +3.4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? No 29,422 0.875 $25,744.59 $2,549.30 +11.0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 26,000 0.927 $24,115.00 $1,186.33 +5.2%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 42,810 0.560 $23,973.45 $10,099.03 +72.8%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 22,964 0.997 $22,894.94 $5,765.14 +33.7%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes 36,962 0.604 $22,325.26 $-2,833.72 -11.3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August? No 19,616 0.953 $18,684.43 $323.77 +1.8%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 12,264 0.997 $12,221.31 $3,359.76 +37.9%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 40,507 0.261 $10,552.13 $1,105.93 +11.7%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 10,745 0.715 $7,682.62 $1,317.76 +20.7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 8,860 0.675 $5,980.46 $487.30 +8.9%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No 9,019 0.650 $5,862.40 $1,172.88 +25.0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 5,888 0.940 $5,531.53 $1,249.62 +29.2%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 117,987 0.046 $5,427.40 $158.34 +3.0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 5,931 0.825 $4,890.44 $112.66 +2.4%
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election? No 3,911 0.886 $3,465.20 $58.69 +1.7%
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? Yes 3,323 0.953 $3,166.79 $181.14 +6.1%
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 6,923 0.440 $3,046.04 $240.28 +8.6%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 3,978 0.605 $2,406.69 $-29.67 -1.2%
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 2,186 0.992 $2,168.06 $425.19 +24.4%
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 2,028 0.967 $1,960.14 $1,716.21 +703.6%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 4,334 0.450 $1,950.12 $222.73 +12.9%
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary? No 9,280 0.195 $1,809.67 $467.51 +34.8%