PnL (30d)

−$57

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$13

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-5.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

51%

22W / 21L · 4 open

Win Return (30d)

55%

26W / 21L

Trades (30d)

47

across 6 markets · ~8 per market

EV / position

−$11.31

avg win $33 · loss $41

Profit Factor

0.54

$65 won / $122 lost

Reward / Risk

0.80

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$98

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	71.1% 59W/24L	15	$1,724
🏛 Politics	61.8% 21W/13L	5	$900
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/13L	2	$98
💵 Economy	100.0% 8W/0L	1	$60

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	562	0.845	$475.20	$37.70	+8.6%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	212	0.962	$204.42	$10.06	+5.2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	240	0.790	$189.72	$69.72	+58.1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	191	0.786	$150.43	$28.21	+23.1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	240	0.209	$50.28	$-69.72	-58.1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	29	0.924	$27.24	$2.80	+11.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	116	0.155	$18.00	$-11.03	-38.0%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	No	16	0.964	$14.99	$2.70	+22.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	19	0.795	$14.89	$5.15	+52.9%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	10	0.645	$6.20	$1.88	+43.3%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	19	0.205	$3.92	$-4.68	-54.4%