| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? |
No |
1,428 |
0.963 |
$1,375.40 |
$1,146.88 |
+501.9% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
1,165 |
0.961 |
$1,119.05 |
$32.04 |
+2.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
1,225 |
0.835 |
$1,022.49 |
$-6.12 |
-0.6% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
1,295 |
0.741 |
$958.61 |
$39.71 |
+4.3% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
1,057 |
0.805 |
$850.87 |
$89.84 |
+11.8% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
No |
803 |
0.835 |
$670.30 |
$268.92 |
+67.0% |
| Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? |
No |
539 |
0.918 |
$495.04 |
$81.04 |
+19.6% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
516 |
0.935 |
$482.16 |
$48.99 |
+11.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
591 |
0.555 |
$327.74 |
$126.96 |
+63.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
330 |
0.966 |
$319.08 |
$54.83 |
+20.7% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
331 |
0.935 |
$309.04 |
$14.87 |
+5.1% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
772 |
0.397 |
$306.56 |
$-16.99 |
-5.3% |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? |
No |
343 |
0.875 |
$300.42 |
$-8.58 |
-2.8% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
608 |
0.485 |
$295.11 |
$-63.89 |
-17.8% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
273 |
0.745 |
$203.11 |
$-12.27 |
-5.7% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,798 |
0.070 |
$194.43 |
$-225.21 |
-53.7% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
250 |
0.745 |
$186.24 |
$51.29 |
+38.0% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
390 |
0.461 |
$179.46 |
$-18.90 |
-9.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
181 |
0.835 |
$151.16 |
$4.53 |
+3.1% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
205 |
0.715 |
$146.57 |
$27.68 |
+23.3% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
965 |
0.148 |
$142.82 |
$-110.97 |
-43.7% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
551 |
0.245 |
$135.12 |
$-118.57 |
-46.7% |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
302 |
0.445 |
$134.36 |
$-1.51 |
-1.1% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
406 |
0.295 |
$119.91 |
$-136.17 |
-53.2% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
717 |
0.165 |
$118.23 |
$-146.89 |
-55.4% |