| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
5,472 |
0.835 |
$4,569.40 |
$539.12 |
+13.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
3,139 |
0.580 |
$1,820.74 |
$-157.22 |
-7.9% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
3,158 |
0.515 |
$1,626.49 |
$410.33 |
+33.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
1,376 |
0.855 |
$1,176.31 |
$149.91 |
+14.6% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
No |
1,378 |
0.835 |
$1,150.79 |
$124.29 |
+12.1% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
No |
5,440 |
0.180 |
$979.14 |
$-507.70 |
-34.1% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
800 |
0.852 |
$681.91 |
$84.60 |
+14.2% |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31? |
No |
812 |
0.735 |
$596.69 |
$68.68 |
+13.0% |
| Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026? |
No |
931 |
0.615 |
$572.65 |
$51.03 |
+9.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
725 |
0.555 |
$402.12 |
$88.80 |
+28.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
946 |
0.385 |
$364.04 |
$-26.01 |
-6.7% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
412 |
0.625 |
$257.60 |
$-17.10 |
-6.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
1,395 |
0.175 |
$244.05 |
$-112.30 |
-31.5% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,381 |
0.165 |
$227.91 |
$-69.33 |
-23.3% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? |
No |
820 |
0.255 |
$208.98 |
$-60.85 |
-22.6% |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
353 |
0.540 |
$190.68 |
$-12.35 |
-6.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
700 |
0.225 |
$157.50 |
$-87.50 |
-35.7% |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? |
Yes |
394 |
0.385 |
$151.73 |
$44.28 |
+41.2% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
829 |
0.145 |
$120.22 |
$-64.49 |
-34.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
850 |
0.115 |
$97.75 |
$-72.25 |
-42.5% |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
156 |
0.605 |
$94.51 |
$4.65 |
+5.2% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
105 |
0.625 |
$65.69 |
$8.52 |
+14.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
64 |
0.955 |
$61.12 |
$12.98 |
+27.0% |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by August 31? |
Yes |
578 |
0.075 |
$43.34 |
$-17.43 |
-28.7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
40 |
0.930 |
$37.16 |
$10.03 |
+37.0% |