| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
No |
11 |
0.375 |
$4.12 |
$0.17 |
+4.2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
16 |
0.235 |
$3.76 |
$-0.08 |
-2.1% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
181 |
0.021 |
$3.71 |
$0.05 |
+1.3% |
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
129 |
0.028 |
$3.56 |
$0.45 |
+14.6% |
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? |
No |
15 |
0.235 |
$3.52 |
$-0.23 |
-6.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
22 |
0.155 |
$3.41 |
$-0.11 |
-3.1% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
46 |
0.072 |
$3.33 |
$-0.07 |
-2.0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
15 |
0.215 |
$3.23 |
$-0.52 |
-14.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
No |
23 |
0.140 |
$3.22 |
$-0.46 |
-12.5% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
49 |
0.065 |
$3.19 |
$-0.24 |
-7.1% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
69 |
0.045 |
$3.14 |
$-0.22 |
-6.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
Yes |
198 |
0.015 |
$3.07 |
$-0.85 |
-21.7% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
12 |
0.250 |
$3.00 |
$-0.60 |
-16.7% |
| Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026? |
No |
39 |
0.075 |
$2.92 |
$-0.58 |
-16.7% |
| Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? |
Yes |
19 |
0.151 |
$2.88 |
$-1.34 |
-31.8% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
27 |
0.100 |
$2.70 |
$-1.08 |
-28.6% |
| Will Turkey join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
47 |
0.058 |
$2.70 |
$-0.43 |
-13.8% |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
68 |
0.040 |
$2.69 |
$-0.44 |
-14.1% |
| Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.045 |
$2.68 |
$0.30 |
+12.5% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? |
Yes |
31 |
0.085 |
$2.63 |
$-0.78 |
-22.7% |
| Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
102 |
0.025 |
$2.55 |
$-0.51 |
-16.7% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
66 |
0.038 |
$2.54 |
$-0.56 |
-18.1% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
17 |
0.145 |
$2.46 |
$-1.27 |
-34.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
59 |
0.042 |
$2.45 |
$-1.09 |
-30.8% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
89 |
0.026 |
$2.31 |
$-0.87 |
-27.4% |