| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
Yes |
557 |
0.790 |
$440.38 |
$-9.65 |
-2.1% |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
No |
271 |
0.900 |
$243.56 |
$0.22 |
+0.1% |
| Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series? |
No |
675 |
0.360 |
$242.90 |
$-27.49 |
-10.2% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%? |
No |
236 |
1.000 |
$235.95 |
$57.48 |
+32.2% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? |
No |
285 |
0.710 |
$202.35 |
$17.10 |
+9.2% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
Yes |
350 |
0.560 |
$196.11 |
$0.49 |
+0.2% |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,118 |
0.165 |
$184.53 |
$-101.97 |
-35.6% |
| KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Samsung Lions |
Lotte Giants |
274 |
0.635 |
$173.85 |
$123.56 |
+245.7% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? |
Yes |
558 |
0.275 |
$153.45 |
$-8.79 |
-5.4% |
| Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? |
No |
158 |
0.964 |
$152.21 |
$3.15 |
+2.1% |
| Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? |
No |
638 |
0.200 |
$127.64 |
$-68.38 |
-34.9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026? |
No |
976 |
0.115 |
$112.23 |
$-41.74 |
-27.1% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? |
No |
128 |
0.840 |
$107.57 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
250 |
0.420 |
$105.00 |
$70.00 |
+200.0% |
| Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee? |
Yes |
300 |
0.350 |
$104.99 |
$5.77 |
+5.8% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
240 |
0.295 |
$70.73 |
$-1.19 |
-1.7% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
No |
1,146 |
0.060 |
$68.77 |
$-185.41 |
-72.9% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
No |
380 |
0.145 |
$55.06 |
$-3.00 |
-5.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? |
Yes |
79 |
0.670 |
$52.72 |
$21.25 |
+67.5% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? |
Yes |
300 |
0.160 |
$47.99 |
$0.56 |
+1.2% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.045 |
$45.01 |
$-55.01 |
-55.0% |
| Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee? |
Yes |
123 |
0.330 |
$40.48 |
$15.52 |
+62.2% |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.125 |
$37.45 |
$-25.49 |
-40.5% |
| Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? |
Yes |
165 |
0.175 |
$28.89 |
$0.57 |
+2.0% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? |
Yes |
299 |
0.095 |
$28.43 |
$-4.49 |
-13.6% |