| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
No |
4,928 |
0.735 |
$3,622.15 |
$50.13 |
+1.4% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
2,581 |
0.625 |
$1,613.02 |
$68.71 |
+4.4% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,773 |
0.655 |
$1,161.49 |
$13.03 |
+1.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
1,138 |
0.964 |
$1,096.26 |
$67.61 |
+6.6% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
2,098 |
0.485 |
$1,017.36 |
$-66.46 |
-6.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,573 |
0.635 |
$999.09 |
$-124.63 |
-11.1% |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026? |
No |
917 |
0.897 |
$822.67 |
$-21.93 |
-2.6% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
696 |
0.977 |
$680.27 |
$30.56 |
+4.7% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
752 |
0.805 |
$605.53 |
$41.85 |
+7.4% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
No |
582 |
0.976 |
$567.67 |
$1.63 |
+0.3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,672 |
0.145 |
$532.50 |
$-182.76 |
-25.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
540 |
0.984 |
$531.31 |
$12.30 |
+2.4% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
500 |
0.991 |
$495.25 |
$4.05 |
+0.8% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
No |
711 |
0.605 |
$430.27 |
$-17.50 |
-3.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
No |
1,125 |
0.375 |
$421.89 |
$-92.46 |
-18.0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
5,730 |
0.065 |
$372.46 |
$-533.05 |
-58.9% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
666 |
0.495 |
$329.79 |
$58.30 |
+21.5% |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? |
No |
288 |
0.985 |
$283.67 |
$9.09 |
+3.3% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
No |
251 |
0.986 |
$247.53 |
$2.47 |
+1.0% |
| SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? |
No |
248 |
0.860 |
$213.27 |
$0.02 |
+0.0% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? |
No |
216 |
0.950 |
$205.31 |
$10.69 |
+5.5% |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.994 |
$198.80 |
$1.70 |
+0.9% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
196 |
0.955 |
$187.54 |
$8.29 |
+4.6% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
191 |
0.976 |
$186.47 |
$18.87 |
+11.3% |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? |
No |
139 |
0.945 |
$131.58 |
$9.67 |
+7.9% |