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Trader leaderboard/firegold

firegold

0x1d5f88f1b97317cccad804374e5bd847512e634d
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$9,387
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3,158
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-12.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
20%
146W / 575L · 267 open
Win Return (30d)
36%
354W / 634L
Trades (30d)
988
across 65 markets · ~15 per market
EV / position
−$204.07
avg win $141 · loss $388
Profit Factor
0.19
$2,252 won / $11,639 lost
Reward / Risk
0.36
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$424
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $41,649 · all-time $1,849,789

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 24.2% 236W/738L 127 $196,846
💵 Economy 39.0% 62W/97L 32 $35,132
🏛 Politics 100.0% 31W/0L 9 $33,235
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/3L 1 $509

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

55 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement? Yes 12,468 0.973 $12,124.71 $756.15 +6.7%
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting? Yes 11,433 0.996 $11,381.36 $1,132.80 +11.1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 20,001 0.515 $10,300.46 $1,452.31 +16.4%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes 9,254 0.885 $8,189.66 $545.61 +7.1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 8,000 0.953 $7,619.88 $16.61 +0.2%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 11,825 0.630 $7,450.04 $-1,052.63 -12.4%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 7,401 0.986 $7,293.41 $914.14 +14.3%
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 5,009 0.875 $4,382.44 $682.10 +18.4%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 4,288 0.865 $3,709.11 $1,082.23 +41.2%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? Yes 4,410 0.807 $3,561.24 $-85.85 -2.4%
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 4,406 0.695 $3,061.95 $995.48 +48.2%
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? No 4,032 0.705 $2,842.44 $28.08 +1.0%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 13,519 0.125 $1,689.88 $139.58 +9.0%
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement? No 1,713 0.986 $1,689.02 $148.06 +9.6%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? Yes 1,807 0.900 $1,625.97 $169.63 +11.6%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 2,006 0.795 $1,594.80 $356.50 +28.8%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 1,413 0.964 $1,362.48 $162.21 +13.5%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? Yes 1,320 0.987 $1,301.76 $108.86 +9.1%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the September decision? Yes 1,252 0.845 $1,057.93 $-51.56 -4.6%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 1,000 0.970 $969.50 $220.50 +29.4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 1,000 0.925 $925.00 $15.00 +1.6%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 1,000 0.920 $920.00 $120.00 +15.0%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? Yes 933 0.986 $919.45 $113.50 +14.1%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 1,000 0.885 $884.98 $249.00 +39.2%
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 879 0.925 $813.17 $464.92 +133.5%