| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
105,767 |
0.545 |
$57,643.07 |
$7,590.16 |
+15.2% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
102,253 |
0.485 |
$49,592.63 |
$-8,537.60 |
-14.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
5,626 |
0.865 |
$4,866.38 |
$184.75 |
+3.9% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
5,089 |
0.786 |
$4,002.86 |
$298.82 |
+8.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
4,300 |
0.835 |
$3,590.13 |
$10.60 |
+0.3% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
3,988 |
0.886 |
$3,535.19 |
$2,114.05 |
+148.8% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
3,844 |
0.823 |
$3,161.63 |
$1,020.28 |
+47.6% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
3,615 |
0.865 |
$3,126.92 |
$545.92 |
+21.2% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
3,030 |
0.940 |
$2,846.66 |
$639.73 |
+29.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
3,326 |
0.835 |
$2,777.61 |
$3.41 |
+0.1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,451 |
0.925 |
$2,267.43 |
$36.77 |
+1.6% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
3,821 |
0.461 |
$1,759.61 |
$-474.17 |
-21.2% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
1,823 |
0.935 |
$1,704.65 |
$606.11 |
+55.2% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
1,613 |
0.988 |
$1,592.99 |
$-1.83 |
-0.1% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? |
No |
1,500 |
0.972 |
$1,457.25 |
$827.25 |
+131.3% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
6,841 |
0.209 |
$1,433.09 |
$12.74 |
+0.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
2,121 |
0.615 |
$1,304.53 |
$0.16 |
+0.0% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
1,705 |
0.680 |
$1,159.67 |
$121.72 |
+11.7% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,556 |
0.645 |
$1,003.91 |
$279.49 |
+38.6% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
No |
1,204 |
0.825 |
$992.98 |
$327.53 |
+49.2% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
2,465 |
0.375 |
$924.28 |
$-2.11 |
-0.2% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? |
No |
902 |
0.963 |
$867.75 |
$149.34 |
+20.8% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? |
No |
1,113 |
0.765 |
$851.61 |
$-119.71 |
-12.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
1,422 |
0.533 |
$758.78 |
$-122.91 |
-13.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
10,501 |
0.065 |
$682.59 |
$-1,337.77 |
-66.2% |