PnL (30d)

−$1,378

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$28

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-24.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

25%

7W / 21L · 9 open

Win Return (30d)

35%

13W / 24L

Trades (30d)

37

across 17 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$114.82

avg win $148 · loss $202

Profit Factor

0.24

$443 won / $1,821 lost

Reward / Risk

0.73

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$78

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	25.0% 7W/21L	17	$18,289
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$7,721
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$7,721

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	6,754	0.375	$2,532.79	$254.39	+11.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	1,516	0.835	$1,265.58	$265.58	+26.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	979	0.695	$680.32	$80.32	+13.4%
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	1,494	0.105	$156.91	$-126.45	-44.6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	725	0.150	$108.70	$-91.30	-45.7%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	169	0.635	$107.63	$7.63	+7.6%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	256	0.335	$85.90	$-14.10	-14.1%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	97	0.515	$49.75	$-8.15	-14.1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	No	559	0.085	$47.52	$-52.48	-52.5%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?	Yes	594	0.075	$44.55	$-65.45	-59.5%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	57	0.642	$36.90	$11.90	+47.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	150	0.245	$36.75	$-39.75	-52.0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,453	0.024	$34.86	$4.86	+16.2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	150	0.155	$23.25	$-35.25	-60.3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Yes	233	0.085	$19.77	$-17.73	-47.3%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	714	0.025	$18.14	$-1.86	-9.3%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	2,873	0.004	$12.93	$-24.42	-65.4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	164	0.075	$12.27	$-5.73	-31.8%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	52	0.215	$11.12	$-17.83	-61.6%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	481	0.015	$6.97	$0.24	+3.6%