convictiontrap
0x1ad9a2f348eaa6b6326af9c1fea382dd455e7bf6
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$660
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$765
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
89%
79W / 10L · 126 open
Win Return (30d)
54%
117W / 98L
Trades (30d)
215
across 6 markets · ~36 per market
EV / position
+$330.21
avg win $743 · loss $82
Profit Factor
9.03
$743 won / $82 lost
Reward / Risk
9.03
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$280
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $4,806 · all-time $6,004,640
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
2 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
779 |
0.745 |
$580.23 |
$-3.89 |
-0.7% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
1 |
0.044 |
$0.05 |
$0.02 |
+43.3% |