| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
48 |
0.835 |
$40.47 |
$5.48 |
+15.7% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? |
Yes |
42 |
0.365 |
$15.40 |
$-1.12 |
-6.8% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
51 |
0.135 |
$6.92 |
$-2.15 |
-23.7% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.935 |
$6.37 |
$0.33 |
+5.4% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.958 |
$5.68 |
$0.27 |
+4.9% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
No |
12 |
0.375 |
$4.62 |
$0.06 |
+1.4% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
23 |
0.195 |
$4.44 |
$-2.09 |
-31.9% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
22 |
0.189 |
$4.20 |
$-4.11 |
-49.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.975 |
$3.80 |
$0.20 |
+5.5% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
7 |
0.525 |
$3.75 |
$0.82 |
+28.0% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
4 |
0.865 |
$3.75 |
$0.11 |
+3.0% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.885 |
$3.69 |
$0.23 |
+6.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
4 |
0.845 |
$3.23 |
$0.18 |
+6.1% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
3 |
0.961 |
$2.70 |
$0.51 |
+23.1% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
4 |
0.635 |
$2.65 |
$0.10 |
+4.1% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
3 |
0.987 |
$2.60 |
$0.02 |
+0.8% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other |
No |
2 |
0.996 |
$2.33 |
$0.01 |
+0.3% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
No |
2 |
0.989 |
$2.28 |
$0.02 |
+0.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
3 |
0.695 |
$2.25 |
$0.44 |
+24.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
2 |
0.987 |
$2.11 |
$0.03 |
+1.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
2 |
0.935 |
$1.85 |
$0.03 |
+1.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
3 |
0.655 |
$1.68 |
$0.37 |
+28.4% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
63 |
0.026 |
$1.67 |
$0.22 |
+15.2% |
| Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? |
No |
2 |
0.945 |
$1.45 |
$0.01 |
+0.5% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
3 |
0.495 |
$1.43 |
$0.13 |
+10.0% |