| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
11,625 |
0.993 |
$11,538.01 |
$614.73 |
+5.6% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Yes |
8,342 |
0.967 |
$8,062.40 |
$1,227.74 |
+18.0% |
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? |
Yes |
6,500 |
0.930 |
$6,048.25 |
$439.65 |
+7.8% |
| Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? |
No |
6,152 |
0.922 |
$5,674.86 |
$3,156.83 |
+125.4% |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
No |
2,792 |
0.991 |
$2,767.33 |
$53.29 |
+2.0% |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
No |
2,629 |
0.977 |
$2,566.91 |
$15.11 |
+0.6% |
| Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026? |
No |
2,167 |
0.977 |
$2,115.67 |
$17.55 |
+0.8% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting? |
Yes |
2,068 |
0.988 |
$2,042.64 |
$466.63 |
+29.6% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,000 |
0.985 |
$1,968.80 |
$27.96 |
+1.4% |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
No |
1,730 |
0.989 |
$1,710.79 |
$11.19 |
+0.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? |
No |
1,595 |
0.938 |
$1,495.25 |
$114.30 |
+8.3% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
1,500 |
0.949 |
$1,423.79 |
$105.11 |
+8.0% |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
98,300 |
0.013 |
$1,327.05 |
$-158.16 |
-10.6% |
| Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026? |
No |
1,280 |
0.962 |
$1,231.29 |
$-2.46 |
-0.2% |
| Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? |
No |
1,205 |
0.989 |
$1,190.84 |
$115.85 |
+10.8% |
| Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026? |
No |
1,215 |
0.978 |
$1,188.12 |
$10.73 |
+0.9% |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? |
No |
1,526 |
0.725 |
$1,106.02 |
$-6.74 |
-0.6% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.515 |
$1,030.00 |
$140.00 |
+15.7% |
| Will Truist fail by end of 2026? |
No |
1,004 |
0.981 |
$985.04 |
$20.50 |
+2.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.465 |
$930.00 |
$262.51 |
+39.3% |
| Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026? |
No |
1,003 |
0.925 |
$928.28 |
$-0.38 |
-0.0% |
| Will KeyBank fail by end of 2026? |
No |
919 |
0.972 |
$892.82 |
$12.34 |
+1.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? |
No |
1,930 |
0.345 |
$665.61 |
$10.16 |
+1.6% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
700 |
0.924 |
$647.16 |
$-2.45 |
-0.4% |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? |
Yes |
1,070 |
0.505 |
$540.32 |
$-20.35 |
-3.6% |