| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
4,000 |
0.976 |
$3,904.00 |
$201.21 |
+5.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
3,750 |
0.835 |
$3,131.23 |
$-58.73 |
-1.8% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1,750 |
0.981 |
$1,715.87 |
$94.57 |
+5.8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
1,500 |
0.968 |
$1,451.25 |
$6.00 |
+0.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
1,490 |
0.965 |
$1,437.85 |
$52.20 |
+3.8% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? |
No |
1,084 |
0.990 |
$1,073.39 |
$50.33 |
+4.9% |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? |
No |
1,066 |
0.956 |
$1,018.65 |
$92.18 |
+9.9% |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? |
No |
1,306 |
0.755 |
$986.26 |
$142.08 |
+16.8% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
965 |
0.988 |
$952.46 |
$16.91 |
+1.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
589 |
0.983 |
$579.08 |
$10.76 |
+1.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
500 |
0.969 |
$484.50 |
$24.50 |
+5.3% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.945 |
$472.50 |
$-2.19 |
-0.5% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
900 |
0.504 |
$453.96 |
$-357.67 |
-44.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.855 |
$427.50 |
$-7.50 |
-1.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
550 |
0.725 |
$398.75 |
$289.48 |
+264.9% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
Yes |
1,062 |
0.320 |
$339.89 |
$5.61 |
+1.7% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.955 |
$286.50 |
$4.50 |
+1.6% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
No |
300 |
0.695 |
$208.35 |
$52.35 |
+33.6% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
350 |
0.535 |
$187.25 |
$14.25 |
+8.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
170 |
0.959 |
$162.62 |
$-0.68 |
-0.4% |
| Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026? |
No |
152 |
0.976 |
$148.30 |
$13.42 |
+10.0% |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.049 |
$145.50 |
$-50.14 |
-25.6% |
| Leopold Aschenbrenner charged in 2026? |
No |
93 |
0.935 |
$86.95 |
$1.39 |
+1.6% |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
500 |
0.170 |
$85.00 |
$-5.00 |
-5.6% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
500 |
0.143 |
$71.75 |
$6.75 |
+10.4% |