PnL (30d)

−$14

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-29.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

17%

2W / 10L · 15 open

Win Return (30d)

44%

12W / 15L

Trades (30d)

27

across 18 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$1.96

avg win $1 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.17

$3 won / $17 lost

Reward / Risk

0.42

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	16.7% 2W/10L	18	$67
🏛 Politics	—	1	$2
💵 Economy	—	1	$2

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	100	0.700	$70.00	$9.55	+15.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	105	0.455	$47.64	$17.44	+57.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	73	0.640	$46.94	$18.38	+64.4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	40	0.655	$26.20	$2.65	+11.3%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Yes	31	0.560	$17.63	$7.83	+79.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	19	0.755	$14.17	$4.17	+41.7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	75	0.177	$13.28	$-17.99	-57.5%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	Yes	10	0.940	$9.40	$1.15	+13.9%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	17	0.455	$7.72	$-0.33	-4.1%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	Yes	15	0.383	$5.75	$0.06	+1.0%
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	58	0.065	$3.75	$-5.61	-60.0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	88	0.040	$3.48	$-4.67	-57.3%
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	5	0.650	$3.25	$-0.70	-17.7%
WHOOP IPO before 2027?	Yes	20	0.135	$2.70	$-1.30	-32.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	3	0.845	$2.68	$0.68	+34.1%
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	10	0.165	$1.65	$-3.70	-69.2%
Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	30	0.055	$1.65	$-0.15	-8.3%
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?	Yes	10	0.125	$1.25	$-1.75	-58.3%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	2	0.655	$1.04	$0.04	+4.0%
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	10	0.085	$0.85	$-1.15	-57.5%
Waymo IPO before 2027?	Yes	20	0.035	$0.69	$-0.37	-34.9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	5	0.114	$0.57	$-0.78	-58.0%
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	71	0.003	$0.21	$-0.79	-78.6%