| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
5,500 |
0.075 |
$412.50 |
$-169.21 |
-29.1% |
| Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
5,000 |
0.075 |
$375.00 |
$-144.99 |
-27.9% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
400 |
0.865 |
$346.00 |
$6.00 |
+1.8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
No |
650 |
0.385 |
$250.25 |
$-19.41 |
-7.2% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
250 |
0.675 |
$168.75 |
$10.25 |
+6.5% |
| Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? |
No |
150 |
0.990 |
$148.43 |
$34.42 |
+30.2% |
| Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
94 |
1.000 |
$93.95 |
$10.57 |
+12.7% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? |
Yes |
2,570 |
0.036 |
$93.80 |
$9.02 |
+10.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
400 |
0.184 |
$73.80 |
$-61.20 |
-45.3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.065 |
$65.00 |
$-20.50 |
-24.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
750 |
0.070 |
$52.50 |
$-86.02 |
-62.1% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.050 |
$49.50 |
$-3.50 |
-6.6% |
| Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? |
No |
37 |
0.979 |
$36.39 |
$4.22 |
+13.1% |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? |
No |
38 |
0.875 |
$32.91 |
$5.96 |
+22.1% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.210 |
$21.00 |
$-50.00 |
-70.4% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.675 |
$20.25 |
$3.75 |
+22.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
33 |
0.034 |
$1.12 |
$-5.15 |
-82.1% |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? |
No |
4 |
0.105 |
$0.45 |
$-2.88 |
-86.5% |
| Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.001 |
$0.05 |
$-62.95 |
-99.9% |