| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
753 |
0.987 |
$742.92 |
$24.15 |
+3.4% |
| Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? |
Yes |
700 |
0.957 |
$669.90 |
$28.90 |
+4.5% |
| Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? |
No |
500 |
0.943 |
$471.50 |
$16.30 |
+3.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
550 |
0.835 |
$459.25 |
$56.75 |
+14.1% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
400 |
0.992 |
$396.80 |
$4.80 |
+1.2% |
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? |
Yes |
300 |
0.940 |
$282.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? |
Yes |
299 |
0.875 |
$261.62 |
$4.49 |
+1.7% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.855 |
$256.50 |
$4.50 |
+1.8% |
| Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
400 |
0.603 |
$241.19 |
$-51.00 |
-17.5% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.800 |
$240.15 |
$59.25 |
+32.8% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? |
No |
300 |
0.785 |
$235.48 |
$7.50 |
+3.3% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.455 |
$227.51 |
$-22.50 |
-9.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
300 |
0.715 |
$214.50 |
$22.50 |
+11.7% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
No |
300 |
0.660 |
$198.00 |
$12.00 |
+6.5% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
300 |
0.615 |
$184.49 |
$58.50 |
+46.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
200 |
0.900 |
$180.00 |
$52.00 |
+40.6% |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? |
No |
250 |
0.715 |
$178.74 |
$33.25 |
+22.9% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.845 |
$169.00 |
$5.00 |
+3.0% |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.475 |
$142.50 |
$25.50 |
+21.8% |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? |
Yes |
103 |
0.974 |
$99.96 |
$3.44 |
+3.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.982 |
$98.20 |
$7.20 |
+7.9% |
| Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.485 |
$97.00 |
$33.00 |
+51.6% |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.875 |
$87.22 |
$5.48 |
+6.7% |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.085 |
$85.00 |
$1.00 |
+1.2% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
100 |
0.785 |
$78.50 |
$21.50 |
+37.7% |