uncleroger
0x0aae5c4ec45339a64a1dd2fe4ba98c2a19eb251c
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$599
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$236
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
30%
14W / 33L · 43 open
Win Return (30d)
22%
20W / 70L
Trades (30d)
90
across 12 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$199.65
avg win $367 · loss $483
Profit Factor
0.38
$367 won / $966 lost
Reward / Risk
0.76
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $30,928 · all-time $16,972,904
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
13 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? |
No |
25,000 |
0.942 |
$23,537.50 |
$-87.47 |
-0.4% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? |
Yes |
2,982 |
0.886 |
$2,643.30 |
$294.11 |
+12.5% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.625 |
$1,875.00 |
$-105.00 |
-5.3% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? |
No |
1,500 |
0.925 |
$1,387.50 |
$82.50 |
+6.3% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
2,844 |
0.485 |
$1,379.46 |
$12.20 |
+0.9% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
No |
1,344 |
0.790 |
$1,062.04 |
$10.08 |
+1.0% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? |
No |
678 |
0.962 |
$652.23 |
$41.72 |
+6.8% |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? |
No |
500 |
0.905 |
$452.50 |
$17.50 |
+4.0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.117 |
$349.50 |
$-190.50 |
-35.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.675 |
$337.50 |
$-52.50 |
-13.5% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026? |
Yes |
300 |
0.942 |
$282.45 |
$21.45 |
+8.2% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.184 |
$184.50 |
$-84.50 |
-31.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
300 |
0.580 |
$174.00 |
$60.00 |
+52.6% |