| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 5? |
No |
31 |
0.970 |
$30.05 |
$1.13 |
+3.9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 5? |
No |
54 |
0.370 |
$19.92 |
$-4.21 |
-17.4% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
32 |
0.455 |
$14.34 |
$-5.19 |
-26.6% |
| Will Trump say "Shit" in August? |
Yes |
15 |
0.920 |
$13.84 |
$-0.11 |
-0.8% |
| Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? |
Yes |
20 |
0.605 |
$12.28 |
$2.53 |
+26.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
46 |
0.215 |
$9.90 |
$-24.91 |
-71.6% |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
No |
11 |
0.790 |
$8.77 |
$1.68 |
+23.6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 5? |
Yes |
51 |
0.170 |
$8.70 |
$-2.75 |
-24.0% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
No |
11 |
0.811 |
$8.61 |
$-0.04 |
-0.4% |
| Will Dusan Vlahovic join Besiktas? |
No |
10 |
0.830 |
$8.30 |
$3.30 |
+66.0% |
| Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote? |
No |
19 |
0.395 |
$7.47 |
$-2.63 |
-26.0% |
| Will Trump say "American Dream" in August? |
Yes |
8 |
0.885 |
$6.64 |
$0.04 |
+0.6% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
Yes |
15 |
0.430 |
$6.47 |
$-2.17 |
-25.1% |
| Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9? |
No |
6 |
0.946 |
$5.95 |
$0.98 |
+19.7% |
| Will Eduardo Camavinga stay at Real Madrid? |
Yes |
9 |
0.690 |
$5.92 |
$-0.66 |
-10.0% |
| Will Astralis Make a Roster Change before September? |
No |
7 |
0.810 |
$5.70 |
$-0.39 |
-6.4% |
| Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
6 |
0.855 |
$5.09 |
$0.15 |
+3.0% |
| Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
5 |
0.976 |
$4.88 |
$0.23 |
+4.9% |
| Another crypto hack over $100m by September 30? |
Yes |
6 |
0.789 |
$4.87 |
$1.69 |
+53.3% |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.675 |
$4.87 |
$-0.04 |
-0.7% |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July? |
No |
6 |
0.860 |
$4.73 |
$-0.22 |
-4.4% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31? |
No |
5 |
0.870 |
$4.35 |
$0.05 |
+1.2% |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? |
Yes |
5 |
0.865 |
$4.33 |
$0.33 |
+8.1% |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.820 |
$4.10 |
$0.50 |
+13.9% |
| Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.810 |
$3.66 |
$-0.41 |
-10.0% |