PnL (30d)

+$85

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$20

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+18.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

64%

14W / 8L · 13 open

Win Return (30d)

63%

22W / 13L

Trades (30d)

35

across 18 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$7.77

avg win $24 · loss $35

Profit Factor

1.82

$189 won / $104 lost

Reward / Risk

0.68

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$1

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	59.1% 39W/27L	43	$2,005
💵 Economy	88.9% 8W/1L	7	$367
🤖 Tech	—	3	$94
₿ Crypto	—	1	$35
🏛 Politics	—	1	$67

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

53 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	239	0.565	$135.20	$-0.19	-0.1%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	571	0.170	$97.08	$4.30	+4.6%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?	Yes	214	0.374	$80.27	$-61.11	-43.2%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	442	0.175	$77.38	$-141.08	-64.6%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Yes	790	0.095	$75.05	$-12.57	-14.3%
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Yes	99	0.600	$59.17	$1.97	+3.4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	111	0.505	$55.85	$2.77	+5.2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?	Yes	60	0.855	$51.30	$9.30	+22.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Yes	200	0.225	$45.00	$-21.00	-31.8%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	Yes	182	0.205	$37.31	$-10.01	-21.2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	200	0.185	$37.00	$-19.00	-33.9%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	467	0.075	$35.02	$-26.25	-42.8%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?	Yes	50	0.660	$32.99	$-1.00	-2.9%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	100	0.300	$30.00	$-49.00	-62.0%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	78	0.385	$29.92	$18.26	+156.7%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	250	0.115	$28.75	$-17.75	-38.2%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $110B by December 31?	Yes	44	0.630	$27.72	$1.32	+5.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	489	0.055	$26.88	$-38.94	-59.2%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	220	0.105	$23.15	$-45.06	-66.1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?	Yes	40	0.565	$22.60	$14.40	+175.6%
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	40	0.530	$21.20	$5.20	+32.5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	200	0.095	$19.00	$-18.00	-48.6%
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	50	0.335	$16.75	$-11.25	-40.2%
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.145	$14.50	$6.50	+81.2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	508	0.025	$12.91	$-1.43	-10.0%