| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
2,200 |
1.000 |
$2,198.90 |
$42.41 |
+2.0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
1,556 |
0.980 |
$1,525.29 |
$103.65 |
+7.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
1,472 |
0.999 |
$1,470.98 |
$1.47 |
+0.1% |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,648 |
0.845 |
$1,392.14 |
$-47.32 |
-3.3% |
| US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026? |
No |
896 |
0.890 |
$797.00 |
$109.06 |
+15.9% |
| US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026? |
No |
935 |
0.825 |
$771.42 |
$116.88 |
+17.9% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
750 |
0.985 |
$738.38 |
$70.88 |
+10.6% |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31? |
No |
576 |
0.925 |
$533.24 |
$61.38 |
+13.0% |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
No |
484 |
0.984 |
$476.64 |
$31.55 |
+7.1% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
446 |
0.940 |
$418.81 |
$71.77 |
+20.7% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
No |
451 |
0.820 |
$370.05 |
$26.69 |
+7.8% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
403 |
0.867 |
$349.57 |
$10.41 |
+3.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
373 |
0.905 |
$337.33 |
$44.81 |
+15.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
304 |
0.999 |
$303.71 |
$0.15 |
+0.1% |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? |
No |
250 |
0.945 |
$236.24 |
$1.25 |
+0.5% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.970 |
$193.89 |
$3.90 |
+2.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.880 |
$176.00 |
$-5.00 |
-2.8% |
| US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.830 |
$166.00 |
$18.00 |
+12.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
176 |
0.905 |
$159.28 |
$23.76 |
+17.5% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? |
No |
168 |
0.905 |
$152.18 |
$18.31 |
+13.7% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
155 |
0.945 |
$146.47 |
$9.07 |
+6.6% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
140 |
0.950 |
$133.00 |
$15.60 |
+13.3% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31? |
No |
120 |
0.945 |
$113.40 |
$6.60 |
+6.2% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
100 |
0.956 |
$95.60 |
$10.60 |
+12.5% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
100 |
0.865 |
$86.50 |
$4.50 |
+5.5% |