| Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B? |
No |
245 |
0.965 |
$236.90 |
$77.49 |
+48.6% |
| Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? |
No |
169 |
0.967 |
$162.95 |
$7.33 |
+4.7% |
| FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? |
Yes |
183 |
0.810 |
$148.49 |
$47.01 |
+46.3% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
No |
161 |
0.795 |
$128.10 |
$16.70 |
+15.0% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? |
No |
128 |
0.919 |
$117.24 |
$10.01 |
+9.3% |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? |
Yes |
249 |
0.465 |
$116.01 |
$53.28 |
+84.9% |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? |
No |
114 |
0.950 |
$107.93 |
$11.56 |
+12.0% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? |
No |
131 |
0.760 |
$99.82 |
$24.45 |
+32.5% |
| Will Trump nationalize elections? |
No |
106 |
0.895 |
$94.45 |
$22.03 |
+30.4% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
129 |
0.715 |
$92.33 |
$42.66 |
+85.9% |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
110 |
0.802 |
$88.30 |
$54.61 |
+162.1% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? |
No |
109 |
0.795 |
$86.43 |
$16.32 |
+23.3% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Obama |
Nothing |
83 |
0.920 |
$75.94 |
$9.13 |
+13.7% |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? |
No |
71 |
0.935 |
$66.39 |
$2.91 |
+4.6% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? |
No |
74 |
0.890 |
$65.86 |
$9.22 |
+16.3% |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? |
No |
68 |
0.915 |
$62.22 |
$2.86 |
+4.8% |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
96 |
0.631 |
$60.64 |
$39.10 |
+181.5% |
| NATO dissolves before 2027? |
No |
62 |
0.976 |
$60.51 |
$3.57 |
+6.3% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
94 |
0.625 |
$59.06 |
$0.72 |
+1.2% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? |
Yes |
97 |
0.606 |
$58.97 |
$19.67 |
+50.0% |
| Blue wave in 2026? |
Yes |
79 |
0.745 |
$58.94 |
$2.19 |
+3.9% |
| US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? |
No |
60 |
0.979 |
$58.71 |
$4.41 |
+8.1% |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026? |
No |
73 |
0.790 |
$58.02 |
$15.00 |
+34.9% |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? |
No |
58 |
0.988 |
$57.27 |
$3.25 |
+6.0% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027? |
No |
60 |
0.880 |
$52.55 |
$3.20 |
+6.5% |