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0x05dfd81903aae6f5caa20e1c1dd1d472728a882d
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$11,089
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$46
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-34.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
11%
24W / 199L · 11 open
Win Return (30d)
14%
32W / 202L
Trades (30d)
234
across 13 markets · ~18 per market
EV / position
−$1,386.14
avg win $10 · loss $2,224
Profit Factor
0.00
$31 won / $11,120 lost
Reward / Risk
0.00
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,873
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $31,352 · all-time $2,386,435
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
3,905 |
0.290 |
$1,132.36 |
$-509.96 |
-31.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
332 |
0.655 |
$217.56 |
$-1.66 |
-0.8% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? |
No |
177 |
0.920 |
$163.03 |
$24.09 |
+17.3% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 8, 2026? |
No |
162 |
0.845 |
$137.30 |
$6.31 |
+4.8% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? |
Yes |
3,891 |
0.025 |
$98.83 |
$27.98 |
+39.5% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 7, 2026? |
No |
40 |
0.865 |
$34.60 |
$3.00 |
+9.5% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026? |
No |
30 |
0.969 |
$29.07 |
$3.67 |
+14.4% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 9, 2026? |
No |
20 |
0.915 |
$18.30 |
$2.10 |
+13.0% |