PnL (30d)

+$5,110

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$156

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+7.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

56%

2,335W / 1,830L · 89 open

Win Return (30d)

56%

2,373W / 1,877L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

4,254

across 750 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

+$7.04

avg win $84 · loss $63

Profit Factor

1.21

$28,910 won / $23,801 lost

Reward / Risk

1.33

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$2,765

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	56.6% 9,641W/7,394L	2538	$683,961
🌤 Weather	52.1% 534W/491L	194	$35,913

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

112 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 6?	No	653	0.890	$580.74	$119.15	+25.8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6?	Yes	1,609	0.350	$563.03	$101.56	+22.0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 7?	No	612	0.685	$419.05	$-4.55	-1.1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 6?	No	690	0.585	$403.56	$-57.81	-12.5%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	No	380	0.977	$370.98	$13.43	+3.8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?	No	418	0.865	$361.91	$64.85	+21.8%
EU dissolves before 2027?	No	329	0.978	$321.64	$3.95	+1.2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 5?	No	327	0.964	$315.44	$63.84	+25.4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	660	0.450	$297.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	926	0.315	$291.64	$22.86	+8.5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 6?	No	370	0.785	$290.27	$31.09	+12.0%
Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31?	No	300	0.955	$286.35	$13.35	+4.9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 6?	Yes	487	0.455	$221.59	$49.36	+28.7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 7?	No	301	0.665	$200.18	$-3.81	-1.9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on August 5?	Yes	1,678	0.115	$193.03	$-231.35	-54.5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?	No	202	0.880	$178.01	$41.39	+30.3%
Will Venezuela become 51st state?	No	182	0.974	$177.61	$3.41	+2.0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 6?	No	215	0.820	$176.30	$27.95	+18.8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on August 7?	No	185	0.855	$158.17	$8.32	+5.6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	1,162	0.130	$151.03	$-6.13	-3.9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 7?	No	215	0.695	$149.27	$-0.40	-0.3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on August 5?	No	173	0.775	$134.44	$9.30	+7.4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 5?	Yes	757	0.175	$132.50	$-37.61	-22.1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 7?	Yes	976	0.135	$131.82	$11.24	+9.3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on August 6?	Yes	571	0.230	$131.35	$7.65	+6.2%