| Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000? |
No |
80 |
0.770 |
$61.60 |
$12.00 |
+24.2% |
| No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
53 |
0.978 |
$51.66 |
$3.39 |
+7.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
No |
230 |
0.215 |
$49.45 |
$17.41 |
+54.3% |
| Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
No |
210 |
0.205 |
$43.05 |
$-8.90 |
-17.1% |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
Yes |
200 |
0.215 |
$43.00 |
$9.00 |
+26.5% |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31? |
Yes |
324 |
0.128 |
$41.25 |
$13.80 |
+50.3% |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? |
Yes |
75 |
0.509 |
$38.20 |
$12.03 |
+46.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
35 |
0.945 |
$33.07 |
$7.25 |
+28.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? |
No |
35 |
0.760 |
$26.60 |
$1.05 |
+4.1% |
| Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries? |
No |
78 |
0.295 |
$23.01 |
$1.17 |
+5.4% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? |
No |
95 |
0.200 |
$19.01 |
$-11.24 |
-37.2% |
| Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? |
Yes |
210 |
0.075 |
$15.75 |
$-34.65 |
-68.8% |
| Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary? |
Yes |
60 |
0.116 |
$6.93 |
$-1.53 |
-18.1% |
| Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? |
No |
52 |
0.115 |
$5.98 |
$-11.70 |
-66.2% |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting? |
Yes |
283 |
0.013 |
$3.69 |
$-34.42 |
-90.3% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
50 |
0.051 |
$2.54 |
$-3.46 |
-57.6% |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
80 |
0.026 |
$2.12 |
$-2.76 |
-56.6% |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? |
Yes |
253 |
0.006 |
$1.65 |
$-45.27 |
-96.5% |