| Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? |
Yes |
649 |
0.595 |
$385.93 |
$13.89 |
+3.7% |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? |
Yes |
247 |
0.605 |
$149.38 |
$5.12 |
+3.5% |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? |
Yes |
190 |
0.290 |
$55.09 |
$-8.08 |
-12.8% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
Yes |
275 |
0.185 |
$50.87 |
$-4.57 |
-8.2% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
211 |
0.180 |
$37.95 |
$0.65 |
+1.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
132 |
0.215 |
$28.38 |
$-21.19 |
-42.7% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? |
Yes |
52 |
0.465 |
$23.98 |
$-2.37 |
-9.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
88 |
0.215 |
$18.84 |
$-22.45 |
-54.4% |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? |
Yes |
23 |
0.805 |
$18.33 |
$2.61 |
+16.6% |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.670 |
$18.09 |
$-0.41 |
-2.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
143 |
0.115 |
$16.44 |
$-1.19 |
-6.8% |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
16 |
0.755 |
$12.08 |
$0.79 |
+7.0% |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown? |
No |
18 |
0.530 |
$9.76 |
$2.77 |
+39.7% |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
56 |
0.165 |
$9.24 |
$0.09 |
+1.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.225 |
$9.00 |
$-0.10 |
-1.1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
Yes |
79 |
0.110 |
$8.64 |
$-13.09 |
-60.2% |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.195 |
$7.86 |
$-1.52 |
-16.2% |
| Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers? |
Yes |
31 |
0.210 |
$6.44 |
$4.68 |
+266.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
64 |
0.100 |
$6.40 |
$-18.49 |
-74.3% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
43 |
0.145 |
$6.19 |
$-0.79 |
-11.3% |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? |
Yes |
9 |
0.615 |
$5.82 |
$0.70 |
+13.7% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
36 |
0.147 |
$5.36 |
$-1.29 |
-19.4% |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? |
No |
5 |
0.962 |
$4.81 |
$0.00 |
+0.1% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.095 |
$3.94 |
$-3.02 |
-43.3% |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
22 |
0.170 |
$3.74 |
$-0.00 |
-0.0% |