| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,888 |
0.121 |
$228.50 |
$134.18 |
+142.3% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
3,347 |
0.044 |
$147.28 |
$48.61 |
+49.3% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
906 |
0.135 |
$122.32 |
$-24.65 |
-16.8% |
| Blue wave in 2026? |
No |
402 |
0.255 |
$102.61 |
$-4.29 |
-4.0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
1.000 |
$99.95 |
$10.95 |
+12.3% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
3,695 |
0.022 |
$83.15 |
$31.23 |
+60.2% |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,175 |
0.065 |
$75.80 |
$46.00 |
+154.4% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
5,465 |
0.013 |
$73.78 |
$12.77 |
+20.9% |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,288 |
0.051 |
$66.32 |
$-41.85 |
-38.7% |
| Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
No |
80 |
0.795 |
$63.60 |
$-0.80 |
-1.2% |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%? |
Yes |
1,516 |
0.040 |
$59.87 |
$-26.42 |
-30.6% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
437 |
0.135 |
$58.94 |
$-1.34 |
-2.2% |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? |
Yes |
1,581 |
0.036 |
$57.72 |
$-27.39 |
-32.2% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
420 |
0.135 |
$56.70 |
$5.50 |
+10.7% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 5? |
No |
53 |
1.000 |
$53.32 |
$20.04 |
+60.2% |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
529 |
0.082 |
$43.39 |
$-4.02 |
-8.5% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
2,725 |
0.015 |
$42.24 |
$7.19 |
+20.5% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
230 |
0.135 |
$31.02 |
$5.74 |
+22.7% |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
200 |
0.150 |
$30.00 |
$10.00 |
+50.0% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
253 |
0.115 |
$29.12 |
$-9.38 |
-24.4% |
| Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? |
No |
30 |
0.935 |
$28.05 |
$0.75 |
+2.7% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
51 |
0.555 |
$28.04 |
$2.44 |
+9.5% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other |
Yes |
5,583 |
0.004 |
$25.12 |
$-21.98 |
-46.7% |
| Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? |
Yes |
1,210 |
0.020 |
$24.20 |
$-0.50 |
-2.0% |
| Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more? |
Yes |
1,348 |
0.014 |
$18.87 |
$-10.37 |
-35.5% |