tbarcelo
0x01d537577f8e48f60787d62c58aa2a7a55d91300
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$3
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
+1.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
80%
8W / 2L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
80%
8W / 2L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
11
across 8 markets · ~1 per market
EV / position
+$0.40
avg win $1 · loss $1
Profit Factor
2.92
$4 won / $1 lost
Reward / Risk
0.49
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $182 · all-time $241,938
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
3 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
37 |
0.925 |
$34.18 |
$0.18 |
+0.5% |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? |
No |
3 |
0.991 |
$3.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.2% |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? |
Yes |
4 |
0.073 |
$0.29 |
$-2.71 |
-90.3% |