| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
Yes |
181,537 |
0.865 |
$157,029.74 |
$9,026.40 |
+6.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
45,500 |
0.961 |
$43,702.75 |
$-217.94 |
-0.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
41,000 |
0.968 |
$39,688.00 |
$-319.96 |
-0.8% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
16,602 |
0.935 |
$15,522.55 |
$5,743.03 |
+58.7% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
33,304 |
0.356 |
$11,856.20 |
$-527.80 |
-4.3% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
No |
7,263 |
0.989 |
$7,179.19 |
$860.63 |
+13.6% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
Yes |
7,239 |
0.940 |
$6,800.80 |
$1,789.72 |
+35.7% |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? |
No |
7,125 |
0.895 |
$6,377.24 |
$1,676.64 |
+35.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
22,639 |
0.215 |
$4,867.49 |
$-15,493.00 |
-76.1% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
20,000 |
0.165 |
$3,300.00 |
$-2,700.00 |
-45.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
8,114 |
0.210 |
$1,704.03 |
$-4,135.79 |
-70.8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
13,561 |
0.117 |
$1,579.88 |
$-861.14 |
-35.3% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? |
Yes |
69,504 |
0.022 |
$1,563.85 |
$452.47 |
+40.7% |
| Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? |
Yes |
35,037 |
0.037 |
$1,313.90 |
$55.92 |
+4.4% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? |
No |
862 |
0.915 |
$788.70 |
$99.13 |
+14.4% |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
23,930 |
0.029 |
$705.94 |
$70.35 |
+11.1% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
20,798 |
0.025 |
$528.27 |
$15.22 |
+3.0% |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.956 |
$478.00 |
$113.00 |
+31.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
No |
1,669 |
0.215 |
$358.89 |
$-731.77 |
-67.1% |
| Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? |
Yes |
300 |
0.976 |
$292.48 |
$91.70 |
+45.7% |
| Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? |
Yes |
275 |
0.980 |
$269.27 |
$42.45 |
+18.7% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
2,720 |
0.095 |
$258.39 |
$-737.18 |
-74.0% |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
72,302 |
0.004 |
$253.06 |
$-808.12 |
-76.2% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
22,901 |
0.005 |
$114.50 |
$-4,891.59 |
-97.7% |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? |
Yes |
1,421 |
0.073 |
$104.42 |
$-1,230.98 |
-92.2% |