| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
No |
86 |
0.105 |
$9.03 |
$-2.56 |
-22.1% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? |
No |
42 |
0.210 |
$8.82 |
$2.97 |
+50.7% |
| China ballistic missile launch by December 31? |
Yes |
48 |
0.175 |
$8.40 |
$-0.65 |
-7.2% |
| Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.810 |
$8.10 |
$1.45 |
+21.9% |
| Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? |
Yes |
31 |
0.210 |
$6.51 |
$0.45 |
+7.4% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? |
No |
8 |
0.540 |
$4.32 |
$0.00 |
+0.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.635 |
$3.81 |
$0.51 |
+15.5% |
| Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? |
Yes |
8 |
0.475 |
$3.80 |
$1.00 |
+35.5% |
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? |
Yes |
5 |
0.695 |
$3.47 |
$-0.18 |
-4.8% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
7 |
0.487 |
$3.41 |
$-0.07 |
-2.1% |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.705 |
$2.82 |
$-0.06 |
-2.1% |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
9 |
0.300 |
$2.70 |
$0.95 |
+54.3% |
| Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? |
No |
3 |
0.785 |
$2.35 |
$-0.21 |
-8.3% |
| Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.305 |
$2.13 |
$-0.53 |
-19.7% |
| Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? |
No |
4 |
0.415 |
$1.66 |
$-0.14 |
-7.8% |
| Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? |
Yes |
2 |
0.450 |
$0.90 |
$0.14 |
+18.4% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1 |
0.885 |
$0.89 |
$0.15 |
+19.8% |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? |
No |
1 |
0.784 |
$0.78 |
$-0.06 |
-6.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2 |
0.215 |
$0.43 |
$-0.99 |
-69.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
2 |
0.175 |
$0.35 |
$-0.69 |
-66.3% |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%? |
Yes |
7 |
0.042 |
$0.29 |
$-0.13 |
-30.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
8 |
0.004 |
$0.03 |
$-2.69 |
-99.0% |